One night in Bissau changed the picture for Nigeria. The Super Eagles lost 3-0 to Guinea-Bissau in September, and many fans did not see it coming. It was coach Eric Chelle’s first loss inside 90 minutes since he took the job. Now the table in Group L looks tight, and the rules make it harder. Nigeria must finish first to reach the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations. Second place will not be enough. Let’s look at how the team got here and what it needs next.
A Long Wait Since 2013
Nigeria last won the Africa Cup of Nations in 2013. That was their third title, after 1980 and 1994. Since then the team has stayed close but has not lifted the trophy. In the last four tournaments, Nigeria took third place in 2019 and finished as runners-up in 2023. In 2019 they beat Tunisia 1-0 for the bronze. In 2023 they lost the final 2-1 to hosts Ivory Coast. They took third place again in 2025. That makes one silver and two bronze medals. The only miss was 2021, when Tunisia won 1-0 in the round of 16. It is a good record, but a good record is not a trophy. The wait is now 13 years, and this time the team may not even reach the start line.
Only One Place in Group L
The 2027 tournament will be held in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. Tanzania, as a host, already has a spot. That changes the maths for the whole group. CAF said the highest-ranked team outside the host will qualify. So the other three sides are fighting for one place. Those sides are Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar. Normally the top two in a four-team group go through, but not here. Each side plays the others at home and away, so there are six games for everyone. If teams finish level on points, the results between them count first, then goal difference. The Super Eagles began well with a 2-1 home win over Madagascar. Ilenikhena scored just before half-time and Usor added the winner in the 65th minute. Then came the trip to Bissau.
What Went Wrong in Bissau
Franculino Djú scored for Guinea-Bissau in the 15th minute. Mama Baldé made it 2-0 in the 65th minute, and Álvaro Djaló added a third late on. The hosts looked sharper all night, and Nigeria had no answer. Local reports after the game pointed to loose defending and a weak link between midfield and attack. Guinea-Bissau also beat Tanzania 2-0 in their opening game, so the win was no fluke. They have scored five goals in two games and let in none. They lead the group with six points. Nigeria has three, and has let in four goals in two games. That gap matters, because the group winner takes the only place on offer. Nigeria also missed the 2026 World Cup after losing to DR Congo on penalties. Another miss would hurt a lot.
The Tanzania Double-Header
The next test comes quickly. Nigeria host Tanzania in Uyo on November 13, and the visitors arrived early to settle in. Four days later, the teams meet again in Tanzania on November 17. Tanzania already has its place as a host, so it can play without pressure. That can make a team hard to beat. Chelle cannot take it lightly either. He also has little time to prepare, because many players based in Europe join the camp after weekend club games. Six points would put the side in a much better place before the break. Many fans will follow these games closely, and some like to check the odds first. If that is you in Canada, compare Canadian betting sites for prices and rules before you place a bet. Make sure the site is licensed in your province, and only bet what you can afford to lose. Whatever the odds say, a three-goal defeat shows that nothing is safe in this group.
Back to Bissau in March
The last two games come in March. Next, Nigeria visit Madagascar on March 25, then host Guinea-Bissau on March 29. That second match could decide the group. Guinea-Bissau still have four games left, so their lead of three points can shrink. The Super Eagles do not control the table alone, but they can control their own games. The home match is a chance to answer the 3-0 loss in front of their own fans. I think the group is still open, because one win can change the table. But the team must defend better than it did in Bissau. The medals of the last few years show what this squad can do. Now it has to prove it in the qualifiers. By the end of March, we will know if the Super Eagles are going to the finals.
