How have recent World Cup semi-finalists done since reaching that stage? Can the three previous World Cups give us any clues as to who may win the biggest trophy in soccer this year?
2022
At the 2022 World Cup, Argentina beat Croatia 3-0, and France beat Morocco 2-0 in the semi-finals. All four will compete at World Cup 2026, with Argentina and France ranked among the favorites.
France have arguably had the most consistent depth in quality over the last decade, but – aside from in 2018 – there has been much debate about their best starting eleven. Kylian Mbappe is top scorer in LaLiga and will play in his third World Cup aged just 27.
Argentina beat France in the thrilling 2022 final, winning 4-2 on penalties with extra-time having finished 3-3. It was widely considered one of the greatest soccer matches ever. Lionel Messi won his first World Cup trophy, and this will be his last tournament. He’ll likely play in the front two of Lionel Scaloni’s fluid 4-4-2, supporting Julian Alvarez.
Their recent form has been nowhere near the level of the 36-match unbeaten streak they were on before the last World Cup. Scaloni’s men didn’t have the smoothest qualifying campaign, losing to Uruguay, Colombia, Ecuador and Paraguay.
Morocco has a new manager in Mohamed Ouahbi. Walid Regragui, the history maker who guided them to that semi-final, said his decision to leave was a “thoughtful choice” made for the country and their football. Ouahbi won the FIFA U-20 World Cup last year in charge of the Moroccan youth team.
Croatia still have Luka Modric in midfield and are largely unfancied ahead of the tournament. Most soccer betting odds place them at around 100/1, despite Zlatko Dalic’s team finishing second in 2018 and third last time.
2018
France beat Belgium and Croatia beat England in the 2018 semi-finals.
Belgium arguably missed their greatest ever chance to win a major tournament with their golden generation. The team that lost narrowly to France included Thibaut Courtois, Vincent Kompany, Jan Vertonghen, Alex Witsel, Moussa Dembele, Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku and Eden Hazard. It was one of the strongest lineups the country has ever fielded, but a few years later De Bruyne said he thought they had missed their opportunity.
The current Belgium team do have some quality players: De Bruyne still leads at 34 years old; Jeremy Doku has been one of Manchester City’s standouts this season; and Courtois is still one of the world’s best keepers.
Rudi Garcia is in his first international management job after coaching Al Nassr, Roma, Lille, and Lyon. He won a French title and reached a Champions League semi-final with the latter two clubs.
On paper, Belgium’s Group G this summer is one of the more straightforward: Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand.
England have another newcomer to international football in charge: Thomas Tuchel was initially hired just for one tournament but has since extended his contract.
The qualifying group was one of the most straightforward in the world, with Tuchel’s team winning all 8 games and not conceding a single goal.
They will face Croatia in Group L, along with Ghana and Panama.
2014
The 2014 semi-finals were the most memorable for several decades. Not so much for the 0-0 between Netherlands and Argentina, but for the barely believable 7-1 win Germany enjoyed over Brazil.
Brazil has been on a mission to restore their dignity ever since. They won the Copa America in 2019 and finished runners up in 2021.
With another manager new to international football, Carlo Ancelotti, they’re likely to play an attacking 4-4-2/4-2-4 system reminiscent of several classic Brazil teams from decades gone-by. Ancelotti is one of the few foreigners to lead the country at a World Cup, and previously coached star Vinicius Jr at Real Madrid.
Vinicius is one of several options in attack but may be joined by Raphina and Matheus Cunha, who have both had strong seasons. Right wing is the spot that’s perhaps most up for grabs, with Chelsea’s Estevao one candidate.
Germany ended up beating Argentina 1-0 in the final that year, but the 12 years since have been troubling by their high standards. New manager Julian Nagelsmann, still only in his 30s, made it clear that more effort was required after a defeat in Slovakia.
Their midfield this year may comprise two Bayern Munich players: Alexsandar Pavlovic and Leon Goretzka. Emre Can was still a regular but tore a cruciate ligament in February.
Jamal Musiala already has over 40 caps at 23 years old and is arguably the one to watch. Germany play Ecuador, Ivory Coast and Curacao, in their first ever World Cup, in Group E.
Netherlands finished runners-up in the 2019 UEFA Nations League and signed off World Cup qualifying with an 8-0 defeat of Malta.
They face Japan, Tunisia, and Sweden in Group F. Ronald Koeman is manager – again – following four other reappointments in the previous seven hires.
Frenkie de Jong has graduated to Barcelona vice-captain and is the most important player in Koeman’s 4-2-3-1. They might not play the splendid total football the Dutch made famous, but they are still fancied as favorites to progress from the group.
